Focus on Quantum Future
We seem to be obsessed with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI). Yet, our forward focus today more appropriately should be on the emergence, impact and potential of Quantum Computing.
AI has had a remarkable impact on higher education, since the release of GPT 3.5 in November of 2022. For an inordinately long time many faculty members fought access to the technology for students and imposed penalties for suspected use of AI in learning assessments. Not only were the initial “AI detector” attempts notoriously unsuccessful, this approach ignored the growing acceptance and reliance on AI in the workplace and resulting need for students to achieve AI literacy. Rather than denying access to AI in higher education, we should promote learning supported by AI among our students.
Attention has now shifted to the advancement of AI from generative to agentic models and the overall integration of AI into enterprise applications. These are important advancements in the field. Agentic approaches enable AI to take on roles within the organization that go beyond limited chatbots and rigidly defined operations to also perform self-assigned assessments, leading to new roles and activities to improve quality and efficiency. Further, recursive approaches enable algorithms to initiate self-improvement, ultimately proposing and independently implementing improvements.
While AGI and ASI will mark significant improvements in AI algorithms, there is not a single clear definition of either of these terms. Therefore, some experts believe that we have already achieved AGI and that ASI is just a year or two away; others say it will be the middle of the century before either is achieved. So, without minimizing the impact of any of the steps toward general and super intelligence, I think we are better served by focusing on more solidly defined steps in AI advancement.
That brings us to what may become a pivotal stage of development in AI, the use of stable quantum computing to accelerate and extend the potential of algorithms. This can begin with supercomputing digital computers linking to quantum computers to take advantage of the awesome speed and other capabilities of quantum physics. Many corporations already have constructed viable quantum computers. James Dargan reports in the Quantum Insider that there are at least 80 corporations that are heavily investing in the development of quantum computers: “IBM, Google, Microsoft, and AWS are among the leading big tech players, each investing significantly in quantum R&D. IBM operates the world’s largest fleet of quantum systems through its Quantum Computation Center in New York, while Google achieved a landmark with its 105-qubit Willow chip.”
The NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology earlier this year described some of the unique characteristics of quantum computers:
These computers work by harnessing quantum physics — the strange, often counterintuitive laws that govern the universe at its smallest scales and coldest temperatures. Today’s quantum computers are rudimentary and error-prone. But if more advanced and robust versions can be made, they have the potential to rapidly crunch through certain problems that would take current computers years. That’s why governments, companies and research labs around the world are working feverishly toward this goal. Quantum computers will not replace our familiar “classical” computers. Rather, the two types of machines could work together to solve problems that stymie classical computers, potentially supercharging scientific research in fields such as materials and drug discovery, giving a boost to industry and upending cybersecurity as we know it.
One of the “strange, often counterintuitive laws” referenced above that govern sub-atomic physics is the phenomenon of “superposition.” That is, the ability of incredibly tiny particles to hold multiple, seemingly exclusive, properties at the same time. Much as digital computers use bits; quantum computers use qubits. The superposition of a qubit allows it to exist in a combination of both the 0 and 1 states simultaneously. For at least a brief period of time needed to complete computations, qubits can be counted as 0, 1 or a simultaneous combination of 0 and 1 at that given time. This results in an exponential acceleration in the capability of quantum computers to do their work compared to digital computers.
Another quality of qubits is that they can become entangled and share properties such as polarity. This entanglement enables them to be separated, potentially by tens of thousands of miles, and retain a special affinity to their entangled partner. For example, if one changes the polarity of one qubit, the entangled partner qubit changes polarity instantly, at the very same instant, not just at the speed of light. In the case of entangled qubits distanced thousands of miles away from each other, monitored with atomic clocks, the change weirdly takes place at the very same instant.
Arguably, the most famous theoretical physicist of all time found this action extraordinary:
“In 1935, Albert Einstein and colleagues first pointed out the “spooky” action of quantum entanglement. Quantum entanglement, however, appeared to conflict with Einstein’s theory of special relativity, which postulates that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light and is demonstrated mathematically by the well-known equation E=mc2.”
A combination of these quantum characteristics and qualities has essentially enabled sub-atomic teleportation over tiny distances. These are all characteristics of sub-atomic quantum physics rather than the Newtonian physics that we are familiar with in everyday life.
The application of these features to AI algorithms greatly expands and accelerates their speed. Initially, this is experimentally being accomplished by linking supercomputers to quantum computers and even creating hybrid computers. One of the more concerning aspects of the incredible speed and power of quantum processing is its impact on cyber encryption that is used for privacy in many applications worldwide.
The overwhelming speed of quantum, enables quantum computers to break encryptions. In the very near future, it is anticipated that all online encryption will be vulnerable to hacking using public keys attacked by quantum computing. Imagine all privacy – at universities, banks, departments of defense, and beyond – becoming vulnerable at the same day when a computer reaches the speed and complexity to crack all codes.
In Forbes, Chuck Brooks warns:
“It would take a billion years for a traditional computer to crack the encryption of today’s RSA-2048 standard. It could theoretically break in less than two minutes if you had a functional quantum computer. An event referred to as Q-Day by quantum researchers is where large-scale quantum computers can use Shor’s algorithm to break all public key systems that employ integer factorization-based (and other) cryptography.”
A dramatic reminder of the impending importance of Q-day can be found at the Q-Day Countdown site! At the time of writing of this column, the site is displaying Google’s estimation of the time to the date of Q-day showing 876 Days; 7 hours; 59 minutes; and 12 seconds. That would be January 1, 2030. Check the site out yourself if you would like a reminder of when our financial systems may collapse if we fail to provide some sort of prior intervention.
I remain hopeful that some ingenious new mode of encryption (mind-meld?) may be discovered to avoid the catastrophe. I am only beginning to imagine ways in which the unique features of quantum computing may enhance distance teaching and learning. In the meantime, we should remain aware that AI will continue to improve, but a massive “quantum” leap is most likely to be seen when we engage quantum computers in advancing AI, especially in the next two or three years. Is your institution prepared for the broad ramifications of quantum computing? Do you have an operable quantum computer on campus for teaching and research purposes? Who is leading your institution in quantum thought and action?
This column was originally published in Inside Higher Ed.
Ray Schroeder is Professor Emeritus, Associate Vice Chancellor for Online Learning at the University of Illinois Springfield (UIS) and Senior Fellow at UPCEA. Each year, Ray publishes and presents nationally on emerging topics in online and technology-enhanced learning. Ray’s social media publications daily reach more than 12,000 professionals. He is the inaugural recipient of the A. Frank Mayadas Online Leadership Award, recipient of the University of Illinois Distinguished Service Award, the United States Distance Learning Association Hall of Fame Award, and the American Journal of Distance Education/University of Wisconsin Wedemeyer Excellence in Distance Education Award 2016.
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