The Pulse of Higher Ed

By Jim Fong

Higher education is facing its greatest challenge in decades. Our field may be at a transformational cusp where the transactional currency for education may shift from credits to competency, competency dictated by new, to-be-determined factors, shaped by our evolving economy, as well as the political landscape. Historically, and for the era, 120-credits was a fairly strong predictor of either workplace mobility and earnings, job security and advancement, or societal success or acceptance. Up to the turn of the century, it was a metric or standard that provided a high degree of certainty for many industries and companies. At the turn of the century, more professions added certifications and licensure to their fields, such as when the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) accredited the project management certificate in 2007¹ and Six Sigma became more prevalent in the late 1990s. Will the next four years change the trajectory for higher education degrees and educational offerings?  

My 2018 predictions² state a shifting of influence from the institution to employers and learners. More importantly, my 2023 predictions were focused on new credentials and organizational change and are still holding course for the future. Even with potential major changes on the horizon, many of my 2023 predictions are relevant for 2025. Here’s a quick look at my original 2023 predictions (in bold) and what it means for 2025.  

1. More financial pressures centrally at institutions will fuel more external revenue-generating activities. This prediction will most likely be the case each and every year for the next five plus years. In fact, with a new presidential administration on the horizon, it is likely that this will accelerate and that revenues will be less predictable. In 2024, many institutions suffered from the FAFSA debacle. While that issue has largely been resolved for 2025, two scenarios could result: 1) students may sit on the sidelines given a lack of confidence in receiving aid and potential instability of the higher education, or 2) we may see a short-term uptick in enrollments for students who did not enroll due to financial aid issues in 2024. Overall, it is likely that online and professional education units will be looked at as additional revenue streams to assuage potential turmoil centrally. 
2. More younger students will enroll directly into fully online degrees. While some UPCEA institutions reported that, albeit small, the numbers of students directly enrolling in fully online degree programs increased, the trend may continue in 2025. However, one major development may stifle growth in this segment: declining confidence in our education system and with public perception. The Gallup Organization reported a 36% decline in confidence in higher education from 2015 to 2023³.   
3. When it comes to new programs, institutions will focus more on pathways, as opposed to one-off opportunistic programs. This prediction will still be true, as one approach to create more value in a higher education investment by the learner and their family is to better connect the curriculum to the profession. This prediction will likely hold true for the better part of the current decade. 
4. Degree completion and welcoming the disengaged student will become more and more important. This 2023 prediction is likely to become a top priority for many institutions in 2025 as colleges and universities work to preserve the degree. The success of this prediction will be dependent on stackability and prior-learning initiatives. 
5. Stackability will become more acceptable. Yes, it will. It is likely that stackability will be a necessary component as one works towards a degree or banks the credit certificate in their future virtual education wallet to be applied to a degree later. Many institutions have made great progress in stackability and how microcredentials fit in the occupational pathway. 
6. Earning or preparing for industry certification on the way toward a degree. As progress is being made with stackability and towards stronger corporate and education industry partnerships, so will earning industry certifications. With a new administration on the horizon, it is likely that this prediction will only accelerate over the next few years. 
7. Badging will continue to advance, but with a slow adoption rate. I believe that this prediction has come true and has stabilized. While the conversation around badging has slowed, acquiring the badge or skill continues to be important, especially for employers and those seeking to upgrade their abilities for the new economy. The incoming president also made mention of a new potential initiative called the “American Academy,” which may also accelerate badging, microcredentials, and prior learning efforts underway at colleges and universities. 
8. Challenges/changes to the accreditation process. At the time of this blog, the incoming president made a speech that stated that he would overhaul, fire or replace “radical left accreditors.” While the focus that he and others in his circle disagree on is curriculum, it is unclear as to what he will actually carry out and how he does it. Regardless, reflecting on just the advancements in microcredentials and the discussions happening at the 2024 UPCEA/AACRAO Convergence conference, accreditors were being challenged with how they were to address new ways of learning, and the credentials associated with it. Accrediting bodies are responsible for ensuring that an institution is offering quality teaching and learning among other services. The acceptance and momentum of microcredentials was a developing challenge for accrediting agencies. A new presidential administration puts further pressure on accreditors. 
9. Improved efficiencies that impact revenues and reduce costs will be in focus. Financial pressures are going to challenge colleges and universities in the near future and likely beyond. It is likely that cost reduction will be an ongoing theme for most institutions and that few will have significant reinvestment funds. 
10. Marketing and enrollment management processes will improve in 2023. While this prediction, I believe was true for 2023 and 2024, the most recent election shows that marketing and communication to young adults has shifted, and new technologies continue to evolve. Some institutions will leverage artificial intelligence in “matchmaker” and new prospect identification. Institutions will also get better in 2025 at using social media and influencer strategies to reach potential students. When inquirers finally engage with an institution either through their websites, a video or telephone call or other format, the lead will be better nurtured. Institutions will embrace their leads more, as competition increases and the traditional learner market contracts. 
11. Staffing the progressive professional, continuing and online education unit of the future will also be a challenge in 2023 and beyond. All departments and academic units will face staffing challenges moving forward.  Some may contract or redeploy staff to other areas. Others may adopt technologies to fill in the gaps. New innovative staffing models may also arise. There is no denying the fact that institutions will be financially challenged moving forward and the impact of this will be staffing freezes or reduction for many colleges and universities. However, the online and professional education units may be looked at more progressively and as revenue centers and may grow as a result, as will other revenue centers or services, such as marketing, enrollment management and curriculum development. While many futurists have predicted that artificial intelligence (AI) can replace these individuals, it is unlikely in the near term. 

What is clear is that many of my 2023 predictions are still on course, but with some exceptions and with greater acceleration in many cases. For me, while I am uncomfortable about the future of the industry that I love, I am happy that the UPCEA community forged a strong path in microcredentials, pushed the boundaries of stackability, unfolded new leadership and professional development programs, invested in marketing and enrollment management, and developed new partnerships, such as with our friends at AACRAO and with corporate providers. As I reflect on where we could have invested seven or eight years ago, I believe these efforts have only strengthened us in the face of the upcoming challenges. It is a tribute to our UPCEA community of institutions and partners, leadership and staff that we are as prepared as we’re going to be for imminent change.