The Pulse of Higher Ed

I am part of Generation X. I was born in 1965 and which makes me one of the cohort’s older members. Although I am a part of Generation X, I at times align with the “Next Generation” … the Boomers. Growing up around Boomers and being an older Gen X’er meant watching I Dream of Jeannie, Gilligan’s Island, Batman, I Love Lucy, and yes, Star Trek. While some of these shows have had reboots and become modernized movies, the Star Trek franchise has been a mainstay with a more successful legacy spanning almost 60 years. During this time, there have been 13 feature-length films and 12 television or cartoon series. It has been successful because the Starship crews in each series adapted to adverse situations, were guided by strong leadership, followed a clear mission, took reasonable risks, and (with the help of the producers and writers) modernized for the contemporary preferences of society.

Higher education is a lot like the crews of the Star Trek fleet. We have smart people working for us. We build strong, diverse teams. We use science and reason to solve problems. We are the hubs for new technologies and advancements. We also have strong ethics, values and moral responsibility. Like the “Prime Directive,” we value the culture of others. Unlike the crews of Enterprise, Voyager or Discovery, however, we often are unwilling to take necessary risks to avoid the clear and eminent dangers ahead. Given where we are today with automation and artificial intelligence, the time may be now to take more risks … “to boldly go where no one [or other college or university] has gone before.”

In 2010, times were good for colleges and universities (and also for the Star Trek movie which had grossed over $250M the year prior). Institutions of higher education enrolled 18.6 million students[i] in undergraduate programs. Fast forward to the fall of 2023, where that number declined to 15.2 million. After 2025, the number of high school-age graduates will also drop. Given the politicization of higher education, demographics, the economy, and the criticism of high tuition, will 2025 to 2030 bring enrollments into the 14-million range … or even lower? There are ways to reverse the anticipated decline in enrollments. 

This negative enrollment forecast is based on a solid-state situation of a degree-only higher education system. If we really want to save higher education, we have to look towards others for help and not just the 18-year-old high school graduate. We could look to international or immigrant populations, as Canada has, but that is unlikely due to today’s political volatility. We have millions of Americans who didn’t go to college that we could also invite. Many of our current acceptance systems and curricula may not be ready for the masses needed. That leaves us with only two realistic audiences that could be engaged quickly, but with some major retooling needed. These are the future graduate population (for another discussion, as more UPCEA research is on the way) and the adult learner, specifically the Some College, No Credential (SCNC) audience.

While the Enterprise crew encountered problems that could be resolved quickly and simply in the length of an episode or movie, higher education faces a more complicated problem. Solutions do exist and the numbers are there. First, we need to save higher education and not just preserve what is slowly failing. Colleges and universities need to go beyond just extending the product lifecycle of the 120-credit degree into perpetuity. The concept of the 120-credit degree as the threshold was created over a century ago[ii] when performance metrics were nonexistent. In a modern economy, degrees may not matter for every job and person. We certainly want our engineers, scientists, nurses, and educators, among others, to have degrees, but should every degree require 120-credits? Degrees take a lot of time. Non-stackable, 120-credit degrees are risky to the potential consumer and are currently an all-or-nothing badge of honor. Our economy is changing at such a rapid pace that the traditional degree shoe will no longer fit many occupations. Personal economics are at play, as the ROI and cost/value equation has been disrupted due to the emergence of an AI and automation economy which challenges the qualifications of the future workforce. 

With colleges and universities at the doorstep of the demographic cliff, many institutions are banking on the part-time online adult learner to offset the enrollment losses and soften the economic blow.  On paper, this makes sense, especially at the undergraduate level.  Recent National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) data[iii] shows that credit enrollments have recovered slightly for Spring 2024, primarily due to a post-pandemic bounce from those returning to community colleges, undergraduate certificate seekers, and savvy dual enrollment students getting college credit while enrolled in high school.  However, while colleges and universities benefitted from this enrollment rebound, the number of individuals with some college but no credential under the age of 65 also increased.  NSC data from 2022-23[iv] showed an increase of 2.9% to 36.8 million individuals.

Recent StraighterLine/UPCEA research identifies many of the hurdles slowing or halting the entry of the part-time adult learner to colleges and universities.  In short, the research shows a number of major themes. I’ve included my commentary with each.

• The perception of needing a college degree has changed for the learner. This could be a result of economic uncertainties brought about by growth in automation and artificial intelligence.
• There are trust issues between the learner and the institution. This could be a result of historically high tuition, job placement uncertainties, and communication issues.
• Major financial barriers exist. Salaries haven’t kept pace with the cost of many goods and services, and it is likely that the adult learner has less disposable income as a result. While financial barriers are cited by learners, value and return on investment are also questioned as part of the financial decision-making process.

Colleges and universities are going to need bigger and better changes to tap into a multi-generational some college, no credential population. The majority of the SCNC audience are members of Generation Z or Millennials, yet some of our processes and systems are legacy-based. To engage the nearly 37 million members of SCNC, colleges and universities will need to:

• Stack Toward a Degree. An all-or-nothing 120-credit degree carries with it too much risk. Meaningful milestones where stackable certificates are awarded on their way to a degree have Millennial and Generation Z appeal. In their formative years, these generations were rewarded more frequently, and committing and paying for the high-risk, all-or-nothing degree runs against the grain.
• Welcome the Adult Learner. Communicate on Their Terms, Not Yours. If colleges and universities want the adult learner, they should not put them through their traditional student systems at the earliest opportunity. They should greet and welcome them promptly while developing a relationship along the way.  Many current systems and processes are either too cold, too aggressive, too slow, or even non-responsive.
• Engage the Learner Early and On Their Platforms. Love it or hate it, social media is foundational to reaching the adult learner who is often segmented and difficult to reach through generic one-message mass media approaches. Modern social media has the ability to target key messages based on many criteria whether it’s age, gender, geography, likes/dislikes, interests, etc. The StraighterLine/UPCEA research shows that learners are clustered in at least five major groupings, each of which has different primary or secondary triggers.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) Will Likely Play a Greater Role. AI has the ability to better link the learner with the right institution. AI can help the learner make better institutional decisions. AI has the potential to direct better information to the learner in a more timely and meaningful manner and help the institution communicate better with the learner. AI will help assess what skills a learner has or needs for a specific career objective. AI will have the ability to distinguish which noncredit learner can be transferred into credit learning. Higher education needs to embrace and invest in new technologies, as many in the education landscape are anticipating a greater role for and impact through AI.

If we don’t confront demographic, competitive, and economic forces accordingly, our field will continue to see losses and declines, most likely to the corporate sector. Higher education can change the trajectory, but it will require adaptation, innovation, teamwork, strategy, and doing things that have never been done before … or “to boldly go where one has gone before.”[v]

 

[i] https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2012/2012280.pdf

[ii] https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2024/01/02/has-the-time-for-three-year-college-degrees-finally-arrived/

[iii] https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/

[iv] https://nscresearchcenter.org/some-college-no-credential/

[v] Star Trek: The Next Generation