In 1997, Sylvia Manning, then VPAA of the University of Illinois system, later president of the Higher Learning Commission, declared, “The online learning train is leaving the station—get on board or be left behind!”

That prescient message by one of higher education’s most astute leaders of the past quarter century certainly proved to be true. We all have witnessed the growth of online learning, with increasing enrollments in that sector while overall higher education enrollments declined. This was further accelerated with the introduction of emergency remote learning that transformed over the past several years into many more refined online learning offerings supported by sound pedagogy, technology and faculty development. Online learning has had a major positive impact across the industry by bringing the learning to the student rather than requiring the student come to the campus. It has accelerated and enhanced professional career development for adult learners.

Now, decades later, Manning’s message is true for alternative credentialing programs in higher education. An equally large—or larger—positive impact is anticipated for higher education with widespread adoption of credentialing that is shorter-term, less expensive, more timely and more career-centric than traditional full-length degree programs.

A number of factors combine to make the move to offering shorter, alternative and supplemental credentials important for most colleges and universities. As Omer Riaz, vice president of strategy and innovation at Jenzabar reports, “1.7 million fewer students are enrolled today than were enrolled 10 years ago. Simultaneously, the cost of college has increased over 25 percent, the percentage of courses taught by tenured professors has steadily declined, and students are leaving degree programs with more than $30,000 in debt and often without the skills necessary for lucrative jobs.”

The most recent figures from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center show the national six-year college completion rate is a mere 62.2 percent. While the percentage is slightly higher than in immediately prior years, it is shameful that 39 million college students invested time, money and personal expectations into higher education, only to have left in six or fewer years without any credential or substantive evidence of their investment.

What other fields are there in which nearly 40 percent of consumers invest years of effort and tens of thousands of dollars to be left with nothing? Big-time gambling and high-risk investments in cryptocurrencies come to mind as possibly equivalent risky activities. Lending Tree unpacks the data: “Americans owe nearly $1.75 trillion in student loan debt, spread out among about 46 million borrowers. That’s about $440 billion more than the total U.S. auto loan debt.” At about $38,000 of long-term debt load per student, that is a daunting beginning for college graduates, who earn an average of $55,260 coming out of college—for those who are hired.

As a result, CNBC’s Jessica Dickler reports, “More than two years into the pandemic, nearly three-quarters, or 73 percent, of high schoolers think a direct path to a career is essential in postsecondary education, according to a survey of high school students. The likelihood of attending a four-year school sank from 71 percent to 51 percent in the past two years.”

The public demand is clear. It is for shorter, less expensive, more relevant certificates and certifications that have value in the workforce marketplace. These can be self-paced or term-paced; in a workplace, online, classroom or a combination; there are thousands of examples with the potential for thousands more. The key is that they must be timely and credible to both the participants and the employers who are doing the hiring. Universities are already responding and will continue to expand these alternative and supplemental credentials. Speaking at a conference of the Non-Degree Credentials Research Network, George Washington University provost Christopher Allen Bracey predicted, “The world and industry are going to demand that we be lifelong learners … constantly retooling and evolving to meet the demands of the day.”

So, how do colleges and universities with few or no such programs get started? In most cases it begins with a connection to employers and involves designing, developing and marketing wholly new curricula that efficiently and effectively prepare learners for careers. However, another alternative has appeared on the scene from a competitor to many universities that may kick-start the process.

Coursera, like other MOOC platforms, has built its business by brokering low-cost, massive online classes developed by corporations, industries, colleges and universities, giving them a platform to deliver and market their career courses directly to students. But now the company has redirected efforts to provide, in addition, offerings to colleges and employers, who in turn can provide them to their own students, as described by Natalie Schwartz of Higher Ed Dive:

The company doubled down on that strategy Wednesday, when it announced the launch of a career training academy that enables users to earn entry-level certificates from companies like Meta and IBM in fields such as data analytics, social media marketing and user experience design. Institutions—including colleges, businesses and government organizations—can sign up to make the platform available to their students or employees. Coursera officials envision that colleges will make the platform, called Career Academy, available to college juniors and seniors so they can learn skills directly connected to jobs. While the company expects colleges to offer the platform outside of their core curriculum, some faculty members have signaled interest in baking the offerings into their classes, said Scott Shireman, global head of Coursera for Campus.

The Career Academy is one way a college or university can get aboard the alternative credential train in rapid fashion by leveraging mini programs developed by industry leaders. The opportunities are growing swiftly.

Does your institution have an effective process for developing and releasing relevant and efficient certificates that meet the changing needs of the workforce? Is this an important part of the future plans for your institution, or will your university be left behind at the train station?

This article was originally published in Inside Higher Ed’s Transforming Teaching & Learning blog.

This is a challenging time to lead, as a provost, dean, director or department chair at a college or university. That is not to say that there are not successes and rewards to be achieved, but they come harder than in decades past.

One can say that every era in our field has brought challenges. Yet this time we are facing sea changes that span the entire field and beyond. Let’s look at a few of these changes and how today they impact the way in we which lead for tomorrow.

It is clear to those who objectively look at our field that we are approaching a fundamental change in the way in which we fund and deliver our noble mission of education. Ever since the first universities were established more than 1,000 years ago in Fez, Morocco; Cairo, Egypt; and Bologna, Italy, we have been an exclusive field serving a minority of residents in our countries. Over the centuries, we were financed in a variety of ways—from taxes to tuition. We have finally reached the point that in the U.S. alone, our students have accrued $1.75 trillion in debt. Consumers simply cannot afford to pay the debt generated by the cost of a degree. At last, we have reached the point where higher education is becoming unsustainable through the residential campus-based tuition model as it exists today.

Increasingly, employers are recognizing the situation and dropping college degree requirements for jobs. To take the place of degrees, a tidal wave of less expensive, mostly online nondegree credentials and certifications, internships, and apprenticeships have arisen to provide more direct, affordable paths to acquiring the knowledge, skills and abilities needed for successful careers. A whole host of providers such as Coursera, edX (now a part of 2U), Udacity, Udemy, Future Learn, LinkedIn Learning, Khan Academy and many more are providing at-scale learning at low or no cost to learners around the world. More than 220 million learners enrolled in at-scale classes and degree programs in 2021. That’s more than 10 times the number of students enrolled in traditional programs at U.S. colleges and universities. Meanwhile, college enrollments continue to their decade-long decline.

Yet a high percentage of faculty, staff and less informed administrators in higher education do not fully realize that the business model is broken. They do not understand that it is not—and never will be again—business as usual such as it was 20 years ago. In another information-centric field, that was the case for newspapers—some 1,800 papers have closed since 2004, as consumers have migrated to cable and online news sources. In another industry in 1999, music CDs brought in a robust $13 billion in sales; in 2018, that had dropped to $614 million. We are, I believe, on the same path. Just as cable and internet news services supplanted newspapers, and subscription strategies enabled music services to supplant records and CDs, we are seeing internet-enabled, affordable MOOCs, continuing education and related at-scale learning meeting education needs.

The huge infrastructure costs of campuses supporting outdated models of teaching are no longer viable. As an industry, to cut costs, we shifted the front-line teaching expenses to adjunct faculty who now comprise 40 percent of the teaching force and are paid less than 25 percent of tenure-track faculty. These adjuncts typically cobble together multiple part-time teaching jobs and earn less than $25,000 annually, compared to the $80,000-plus average salary for full-time professors. This puts adjuncts below the federal poverty guideline for a family of four. This, too, is not sustainable.

Provosts, deans, directors and department chairs are caught in the vise between fiscal realities causing dropping enrollments and the regulator, legislator, faculty and staff beliefs that circumstances are the same as they were 20, 30 and 40 years ago. It is no longer tenable to lead a higher education workforce that is unaware of the magnitude of the societal changes that have changed the education marketplace. It is imperative that we give the facts of the situation to higher ed workers. To the extent that the university workforce is unprepared, unable or unwilling to make the needed changes to adapt to more efficient, effective and affordable delivery of education, there will be widespread dissatisfaction, friction and dwindling success.

Meanwhile, the broader societal workforce and industry needs are changing rapidly, fueled by artificial intelligence–powered technologies. A few years ago, it was the blue-collar worker who was most affected by intelligent robotics on the factory floor. Now, AI is replacing accountants, medical assistants and a host of other jobs that previously required college-degreed professionals. This has led to the rise of “new-collar workers” in jobs that require skills and training but not college degrees. As a result, businesses, especially those in tech, are supporting nondegree upskilling and reskilling, to cultivate the talent they need.

As a professor emeritus who rose through the ranks of the tenure track to full professor, I am dismayed that the tenure system designed to protect academic freedom has, at some institutions, become a refuge for some of the professoriate who fail to respond to the need to actively adapt to more efficient, effective and affordable models of higher education. Inevitably, more and more colleges are merging and closing. I fear this trend will accelerate in what may become a worldwide recession in the coming months.

Our first step in meeting the challenge is communication. We must relentlessly communicate to our legislators, regulators, faculty, staff and peers the nature of the challenge, the magnitude of the new competition and ultimate ramifications that confront us. Only if we collectively understand that all of our careers are threatened if we fail to make substantial changes will we have a chance to solve the crisis. This will not be solved by simply throwing more dollars at recruiting more students. It will not be solved by raising tuition once again. It will not be solved by trimming costs at the margin. It will not be solved by hiring more adjuncts. It cannot be solved alone by provosts, deans, directors and department chairs without the active engagement of faculty, staff and related others in reinventing our universities into more efficient, effective and affordable institutions.

Are you carrying this message to your university? Who will join you in ringing the alarm that we all must contribute to change that will enable the institution to survive?

This article was originally published in Inside Higher Ed’s Transforming Teaching & Learning blog.