Online: Trending Now

Unique biweekly insights and news review
from Ray Schroeder, Senior Fellow at UPCEA

Higher Ed from Static to Dynamic

The numbers paint a clear picture of change in demand for higher education. Still unclear is if colleges will adapt from static schools to dynamic institutions in time to survive and thrive.

Businesses are accustomed to changes in the marketplace. The demographics of customers and clients change through time. Products and services are constantly under scrutiny to ensure that they are finely tuned to the needs and desires of the marketplace. Efficiency, effectiveness and cost savings are encouraged and rewarded among employees and managers. Innovation tapping the newest technologies and techniques are integral to the research and development process. Surveys and focus groups are employed constantly to assess products and services matched to the customer. 

Higher education on the other hand over the past decades has become too comfortable in serving an unchanging market with a largely unchanging product, year after year; decade after decade. Other than gross number analysis, many colleges previously did not take a deep dive into demographics of students every semester to detect and adapt to subtle changes in other than the broadest terms. This is especially the case for comparison to competitors that are not degree-granting, such as code academies, Google, Amazon, LinkedIn and others. Curriculum and degree/certificate offerings had not been reviewed every semester to determine how directly they serve the dual customer base of employers and students. Reviews were not always coupled with a serious solicitation of recommendations from the dual audiences.

Equally important to the practices above is how quickly and effectively changes are implemented based on the findings. Stasis in this time means decline. An environment of static stability too often is the norm rather than dynamic responsiveness and growth. By the time some changes make it through the process of changing curricula, colleges, and departments, the market has further changed. 

The enrollment decline since the start of the pandemic is one of the most dramatic in history. The latest preliminary results from the National Student Clearninghouse Research Center show that the number of undergraduate students will likely drop 3.2 percent in the current academic year. All of this, after losing 3.4 percent last year. Overall, accounting for 6.6 percent less undergraduates than prior to the Covid pandemic, online institutions saw a similar dip of 5.5 percent. However, those online institutions are faring better, after seeing an increase of 8.6 percent enrollment in the fall 2020 semester. With the recent dip in enrollment, it is clear young adults increasingly are choosing work over college.

As a result, we see startling data on student enrollments. For example, fewer than half of all high schoolers want to go to a four-year college. CNBC reports, “A recent survey of high school students found that the likelihood of attending a four-year school sank more than 20% in the last year and a half — down to 48%, from 71%, according to ECMC Group, a nonprofit aimed at helping students find success.” The number of African American students declined at an accelerating rate. There is no guarantee that these trends will improve when the Covid pandemic finally subsides. 

The gender balance of the college student population has shifted dramatically over the decades from a twelve-percentage point lead in the number of male students to now a nearly twenty-percentage point lead by female students with only 41% of undergraduate students self-identified as males. 

Not only are the numbers of male students enrolled on the decline, but the numbers of male dropouts exceed those of female students. As Derek Thompson writes in the Atlantic, there are serious and pervasive societal impacts that await us if we are unable to stabilize the gender tilt in learning. The double-digit advantage in numbers of males completing college was harmful in years gone by, adding fuel to the disparity in wages as well as underrepresentation of women in leadership roles. The even larger gap – this time favoring female numbers – continues to grow with unknown consequences. 

The pendulum, swinging even further this time, may bring about changes that we are yet unable to predict in our society. Most assuredly, though, less education for any segment of our society whether it be gender, race, religion, ethnicity, geography, sexual orientation, or any other characteristic, is not a good thing.  An important aspect of higher education’s social compact is to strive to spread learning to everyone, everywhere. 

Even in this emerging age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, change is the constant as the ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus cautioned us some 2,500 years ago. He concluded that “nature is change. Like a river, nature flows ever onwards. Even the nature of the flow changes.

Implicit in Heraclitus’ wisdom is that we must adapt to change. That is the key for colleges and universities today. This is not the society of half a century ago – the 1970’s – needs and desires have changed for the two groups we most directly serve: the students and the employers. Our field cannot be uniquely static in a world of change. We must take these changes into account and dynamically respond with new modules, courses, programs, certifications, degrees, all at more affordable price-points, if we have a hope of reclaiming the number of enrollments and the respect of employers that we once had. 

Is your institution collecting deep and clear data on not only the changes that have taken place, but what has motivated those changes? My readings are that there is a shift from a primary need to serve a traditional on-campus freshman cohort to serve the learning needs of upskilling, reskilling, and leadership competencies that we see growing in our society. Given that base, is your institution implementing responsive changes that promise to turn around the old models in time to advance your standing? If these are not happening, or not happening quickly enough, you may be well served to begin looking at other places of employment, or careers, that can best use your abilities to help move from the static to the dynamic, thereby advancing the institution.

 

This article was originally published on Inside Higher Ed’s Transforming Teaching & Learning blog. 

A man (Ray Schroeder) is dressed in a suit with a blue tie and wearing glasses.

Ray Schroeder is Professor Emeritus, Associate Vice Chancellor for Online Learning at the University of Illinois Springfield (UIS) and Senior Fellow at UPCEA. Each year, Ray publishes and presents nationally on emerging topics in online and technology-enhanced learning. Ray’s social media publications daily reach more than 12,000 professionals. He is the inaugural recipient of the A. Frank Mayadas Online Leadership Award, recipient of the University of Illinois Distinguished Service Award, the United States Distance Learning Association Hall of Fame Award, and the American Journal of Distance Education/University of Wisconsin Wedemeyer Excellence in Distance Education Award 2016.

Other UPCEA Updates + Blogs

Workforce Pell Is Here and Data Readiness Is the Real Test for Credential Innovation

The expansion of Pell Grant eligibility to short-term, non-degree programs—commonly known as Workforce Pell—has become a defining moment for credential innovation. In a strategic conversation hosted by UPCEA in December 2025, higher education leaders made one thing clear: access to Workforce Pell is not primarily a policy challenge. It is a data challenge. As institutions…

Reduced-Credit Degrees: Leading with Learners While Preparing for Disruption

As questions about the value, cost, and structure of a traditional bachelor’s degree continue to intensify, higher education leaders are confronting a reality that has remained largely unchanged for decades: the 120-credit-hour degree is more a historical artifact than a learner-centered design choice. During a recent conversation with UPCEA Institutional Representatives, panelists and participants explored…

Pack Light, Go Far: Hiking the Enrollment Trail

There’s a moment from my college days I remember more clearly than any midterm I ever took. I had stepped away from my bachelor’s degree at Penn State because I wanted to live a little. I’d grown up in the same town that I went to college and I just needed an extended reprieve, something…

Preparing the Workforce for an AI-Driven Economy: An Online and Professional Continuing Education Imperative

Is your online and professional continuing education unit looking for ways to improve job-market outcomes for graduates and alumni? Are you exploring strategies that better align your program portfolio with the skills business and industry leaders say they need both for new hires and for upskilling current employees?  Recent employer data provides a clear signal that high-demand employees are ones with verified AI skills and practical experience. A 2025…

Workforce Pell Grants: Primer and Update from Negotiated Rulemaking | Policy Matters (December 2025)

Major Updates Workforce Pell Grants for Short-Term Programs: A Primer and Update from Negotiated Rulemaking: Consensus Reached – What’s in the Draft Regulations We’ve developed a blog that provides a primer and overview of the recent negotiated rulemaking work on Workforce Pell Grants for Short-Term Programs, focusing on the first week of sessions held by…

Workforce Pell Grants for Short-Term Programs: A Primer and Update from Negotiated Rulemaking: Consensus Reached – What’s in the Draft Regulations

What Online and Professional Continuing Higher Education Leaders Should Know In early December, the Department of Education kicked off negotiated rulemaking with the Accountability in Higher Education and Access through Demand-driven Workforce Pell (AHEAD) committee, focusing most of its efforts in the first week on new Workforce Pell regulations and loss of Pell eligibility as…

Whether you need benchmarking studies, or market research for a new program, UPCEA Consulting is the right choice.

We know you. We know the challenges you face and we have the solutions you need. We speak your language and have been serving leaders like you for more than 100 years. UPCEA consultants are current or former continuing and online higher education professionals who are experts in the industry—put our expertise to work for you.


UPCEA is dedicated to advancing quality online learning at the institutional level. UPCEA is uniquely focused on excellence at the highest levels – leadership, administration, strategy – applying a macro lens to the online teaching and learning enterprise. Its engaged members include the stewards of online learning at most of the leading universities in the nation.

We offers a variety of custom research options through a variable pricing model.


Click here to learn more.

The Nation's Top Universities Choose UPCEA Consulting

Informed decisions. Ideas that work. The data you need. Trusted by the top universities in the nation.