Online: Trending Now

Unique biweekly insights and news review
from Ray Schroeder, Senior Fellow at UPCEA

Disrupting the Disrupters

The advent of online education was a classic Clayton Christensen disrupter. That was a quarter of a century ago. Now the disrupter is becoming disrupted.

Harvard professor Clayton Christensen described disruptive innovation as “a process by which a product or service takes root initially in simple applications at the bottom of a market and then relentlessly moves up market, eventually displacing established competitors.” That’s just what started in the early to mid-1990s for online learning and continued until today. Colleges and universities efficiently reached new, underserved markets by virtually bringing the university to the student. The trend continues with overall college enrollment in the U.S. dropping for a fourth year, while the online portion of that enrollment continues to rise. But something else is coming into play — in a very large way!

Online programs at thousands of colleges and universities are beginning to see a flattening of the growth curve. It is an inflection point in the inevitable product life-cycle curve. We are now topping the maturity segment of the curve for many modest-size programs. As markets are saturated and new competition and innovations enter the field, we are moving into the decline segment of the “traditional” online program.

A number of players and factors are changing the field. Georgia Institute of Technology calls it “at-scale” learning; others call it the “mega-university” — whatever you call it, this is the advent of the very large, 100,000-plus-student-scale online provider. Coursera, edX, Udacity and FutureLearn (U.K.) are among the largest providers. But individual universities such as Southern New Hampshire, Arizona State and Georgia Tech are approaching the “at-scale” mark as well. One could say that’s evidence of success in online learning. And without question it is.

But, with highly reputable programs at this scale and tuition rates at half or below the going rate for regional and state universities, the impact is rippling through higher ed. Georgia Tech’s top 10-ranked computer science master’s with a total expense of less than $10,000 has drawn more than 10,000 qualified majors. That has an impact on the enrollment at scores of online computer science master’s programs offered elsewhere. The overall online enrollment is up, but it is disproportionately centered in affordable scaled programs, draining students from the more expensive, smaller programs at individual universities. The dominoes fall as more and more high-quality at-scale programs proliferate.

Sean Gallagher, executive director of Northeastern University’s Center for the Future of Higher Education and Talent Strategy and executive professor of educational policy, explains the slow-motion seismic shift we are watching in higher education. The benefits are huge; the potential is even greater!

But, somehow, it does not feel the same being disrupted as it did 20 years ago when we were doing the disruption. So, what can be done by nonscaling universities? Much.

We can begin disruption anew with microcredentialing of just-in-time modules that anticipate the tech-driven training that industry will need in the coming year or two. We can offer microcredentialing of the communication, leadership and social skills that businesses say our graduates lack such as online leadership; communication skills (verbal, video and interactive); creative and innovative thinking; and more. We can serve international markets where growth is faster than domestically and needs are even greater. And we can seek to collaborate with other colleges and universities to jointly offer programs that draw upon the more diverse base of knowledge experts across multiple institutions.

Even if enrollments have not yet reached a plateau in your traditional online programs, now is the time to begin to look at the life-cycle curve and plan for the eventuality that your university will also be disrupted.

This article was first posted January 9th in Inside Higher Ed’s Inside Digital Learning. 

A man (Ray Schroeder) is dressed in a suit with a blue tie and wearing glasses.

Ray Schroeder is Professor Emeritus, Associate Vice Chancellor for Online Learning at the University of Illinois Springfield (UIS) and Senior Fellow at UPCEA. Each year, Ray publishes and presents nationally on emerging topics in online and technology-enhanced learning. Ray’s social media publications daily reach more than 12,000 professionals. He is the inaugural recipient of the A. Frank Mayadas Online Leadership Award, recipient of the University of Illinois Distinguished Service Award, the United States Distance Learning Association Hall of Fame Award, and the American Journal of Distance Education/University of Wisconsin Wedemeyer Excellence in Distance Education Award 2016.

Other UPCEA Updates + Blogs

UPCEA Recognizes 2025 Award Recipients at the Summit for Online Leadership and Administration Conference (SOLAR)

Association Award Recipients Highlighted at Event WASHINGTON (July 17, 2025) – UPCEA, the online and professional education association, is pleased to recognize the recipients of this year’s online and distance education awards. Award recipients will be showcased at the Summit for Online Leadership and Administration (SOLAR) Conference, July 22-24 in Portland, Oregon. The annual SOLAR…

Read More

Unlocking Opportunity: How Tax Policies Like Section 127 Can Drive Employer Partnerships

By Chelsea Miller, UpSkill America, and Amy Heitzman, UPCEA Partnership is a key driver to unlocking opportunity in America, which is why UPCEA and UpSkill America are so excited to come together to help academic institutions understand one particular priority for employers: leveraging tax policies to drive engagement (really!).  UpSkill America focuses on how employers…

Read More

Foreword by Bob Hansen Featured in The COLO Guidebook

We are pleased to share the foreword by UPCEA CEO Bob Hansen from the newly released Chief Online Learning Officers’ Guidebook: A Framework for Strategy and Practice in Higher Education. The guidebook, now available from Routledge in paperback, hardback, and eBook formats, provides a comprehensive framework for today’s online learning leaders. Learn more and purchase…

Read More

The Compensation Compass: Navigating Professional Value with the 2024 UPCEA Salary Survey

If you’ve ever set out on a hike without a map and compass, you know the feeling: creeping uncertainty about whether you’re still on the trail, how far you’ve come, and how far you have to go. In 2017, when I was walking from Mexico to Canada, the snow level in the Sierra Mountains was…

Read More

International Student Visa Review Resumes, Social Media Vetting Instituted | Policy Matters (June 2025)

Major Updates Trump Administration Resumes Embassy Review on Student Visas, Implements Social Media Vetting Requirements The Trump Administration has lifted its pause on F‑, M‑, and J‑visa processing but simultaneously unleashed sweeping new social-media vetting requirements: all international student applicants must now make their Facebook, X, Instagram and other accounts public for consular review, with…

Read More

UPCEA Announces Updates to Board of Directors

June 25, 2025 – WASHINGTON — UPCEA, the online and professional education association, announces recent updates to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Susan Seal, Ph.D., Dean of the College of Professional and Continuing Studies at Mississippi State University, has been appointed to serve as a Director At-Large, filling the remainder of the 2025–2026 term…

Read More

Whether you need benchmarking studies, or market research for a new program, UPCEA Consulting is the right choice.

We know you. We know the challenges you face and we have the solutions you need. We speak your language and have been serving leaders like you for more than 100 years. UPCEA consultants are current or former continuing and online higher education professionals who are experts in the industry—put our expertise to work for you.


UPCEA is dedicated to advancing quality online learning at the institutional level. UPCEA is uniquely focused on excellence at the highest levels – leadership, administration, strategy – applying a macro lens to the online teaching and learning enterprise. Its engaged members include the stewards of online learning at most of the leading universities in the nation.

We offers a variety of custom research options through a variable pricing model.


Click here to learn more.

The Nation's Top Universities Choose UPCEA Consulting

Informed decisions. Ideas that work. The data you need. Trusted by the top universities in the nation.