By Jim Fong

Higher education has been in a state of flux for the past five years, trying to maintain the strengths of its business model while adapting to new market conditions. For many institutions, they are choosing to transform, acknowledging the beginning of the demographic cliff and an automated economy. Recent data from the National Student Clearinghouseⁱ shows that higher education has likely arrived at the cliff, despite undergraduate enrollments growing slightly by 2%. The data shows that much of the growth is a result of an uptick in community college enrollments, transfer students, dual enrollment high school students and credit certificate completers. Contrary to the growth, first-time student enrollments have actually declined by 3.6%. Further compounding this decline is the growing perception that a college degree has less value in a future economy fueled by automation and artificial intelligence.

As a result, many colleges and universities will need to re-examine not only their primary product, the degree; but how it serves the student of the future via the delivery of education, the credentials they offer, and how they engage prospects and enroll them into their processes.

UPCEA has made it a priority to help its members navigate uncertainty through data gathering and thought leadership. In addition to regular UPCEA research initiatives, such as its biannual salary, organizational and staffing surveys, and monthly snap polls, UPCEA has partnered with several corporate members to identify key research issues. The highlights of these research initiatives from 2023 follow, but they tend to focus on two major themes … 1) what external market forces are saying and 2) readiness of online and professional units to serve future markets. Major research findings on the external market include:

• Colleges will need to tap into the complex adult learner market to address their fiscal commitments. With the number of eighteen-year-olds declining over the next decade plus, colleges and universities have few choices to reach enrollment and financial goals. They can try and improve graduation rates, but this number is already more than 85%. Further compounding this is a growing opinion in the media and social media channels that many or more jobs may not require a college degree in the future. StraighterLine partnered with UPCEA on a study of 1,106 adults with some college but no degree. What we found out was that the adult learner has many different profiles, personas or market segments. However, what is common across the majority of adult learners is a need for greater milestone recognition, which could be awarding stackable certificates on their way to a degree; as well as acknowledgment of prior learning for experiences which clearly address competencies required as part of a degree. These learners want a college degree, but 120 credits is a bridge too far — while milestones such as badges or certificates will help them in their current job and provide insurance should their studies be disrupted. This study can be found here.
• The role of employers will be critical as higher education is redefined. They hold much of the purse strings regarding employee training. With the exodus of the baby boomer in the workforce, more training and education decisions are being made by Millennial managers and Gen X’ers in the C-suite. Collegis Education partnered with UPCEA on a survey of over five hundred employers. What we found was that employers want a greater place at the table. They believe that training and education is a two-way street and that both the employer and institution can benefit by greater involvement from the employer. This research shows that employers not only want input on defining what the real-world curriculum is, but also to improve communication, processes and relationships. In doing so, UPCEA believes that the main critique of higher education by employers will be resolved: cost, value and return on investment. The whitepaper can be found here.

These two major pieces of partnered research, along with the Voice of the Online Learner Report and the 2023 EducationDynamics Online College Students Reportⁱⁱⁱ  are essential guides to gauge adult learner and employer perceptions, beliefs and opinions pertaining to institutions of higher education, the programs they offer and services that surround them. These four studies are must-reads regarding the state of the online and professional education marketplace.  

The second emphasis of UPCEA-partnered research focused on institutional readiness and operational effectiveness. Addressing these issues will help institutional members identify and leverage market opportunities while avoiding its pitfalls. A joint study^iv by AACRAO, Modern Campus and UPCEA revealed that online and professional education units must work more closely with their registrars and other institutional stakeholders to overcome internal or operational barriers to capitalize on opportunities. A number of other partnered research studies focused internally on other improvement and process areas, including:

• According to a joint study by The EvoLLLution, UPCEA and CAUCE, the role and impact that professional and continuing education units have on the greater institution continues to increase. The study also shows that progress is being made as to resources needed to innovate and develop new programs and credentials, but opportunities for improvement do exist, including the integration and accessibility of operational metrics and enrollment data, as well as needed staff positions (particularly in marketing).
• Given advances in technology, modern marketing approaches are critical to reach both the adult learner and employer. An UPCEA study conducted with InsideTrack revealed that nearly one-in-five institutions do not track enrollment funnel metrics. The study also revealed that, either through intentional planning or lack of ability, the percentage of inquiries that become “stealth applicants” has increased since 2019. The institution either has no idea how the applicant found them or has done such a great job of branding and communication that encourages an applicant to bypass the inquiry process and go direct to an application. The research also shows cycle time or “pipeline time” for credit and noncredit programs. This measure is critical as it forces the marketing and program teams to plan advanced milestones and engagements upstream from a program start date.
• Institutions need to improve digital marketing efforts, especially their websites and student experience. There were two studies that UPCEA partnered with Search Influence on, one was a groundbreaking 2023 study of search engine optimization and website readiness, while the second soon-to-be-released study was conducted in early 2024 and highlighted digital marketing costs at the inquirer or student acquisition level. The 2023 study identified that many units have strayed from having their websites designed around the student experience. Many of the 100 institutional websites studied performed poorly on parameters such as accessibility, link authority, having appropriate title tags or meta descriptions and overall site health or authority.
• Although there is increased momentum for alternative credentials, many institutions are struggling to establish consistent and scalable processes for developing and pricing these programs. This UPCEA study, supported by a grant from Walmart, found that despite widespread acceptance of alternative credentials, many institutions do not yet view alternative credentials as a strategic priority. This is evident in that 71% of survey respondents didn’t know the gross revenue generated by alternative credentials at their institution. It is a significant challenge to make arguments for resources and strategic importance without having the data to inform and guide decision-makers. It is also important to emphasize that organizations with longer experience in alternative credentials show more pricing variability than newer entrants. As institutions mature in this process, increased efficiencies, and prolonged success, can be obtained.

What is clear is that the online and professional continuing education unit has the potential to save the institution. At minimum, these units will play a major role in the success of their institutions as higher education is reshaped. In the future, revenues and enrollments will be less likely to be fully dependent on standalone bachelors and graduate degrees and will be diversified through stackable credentials, such as certificates and badges. Another UPCEA partnered research effort with ISACA confirms industry demand and forecasts, including those done by HolonIQ, further solidifying the need for more flexible, stackable certificates. While currently cloudy, the future of higher education is starting to take form in that institutions must expand beyond the 15.1 million undergraduates by tapping into 250 million adults in the U.S. through more flexible and stackable credentials, as well as reach global markets, many of which have been quicker to adopt microcredentials and other forms and delivery of higher education. To do so, institutions are going to need to change, improve and rethink their operations, further solidifying the need for more flexible, stackable certificates. 

[i] https://nscresearchcenter.org/stay-informed/

[ii] https://universityservices.wiley.com/voice-of-the-online-learner-2023/

[iii] https://insights.educationdynamics.com/rs/183-YME-928/images/EDDY-online-college-students-2023.pdf

[iv] https://www.aacrao.org/who-we-are/newsroom/article/2023/07/24/new-research-from-aacrao-upcea-and-modern-campus-shows-barriers-affecting-effective-collaboration-between-academic-registrar-and-pce-unit

By Emily West

In the classic Disney movie Alice in Wonderland, one scene captivated me as a child: Alice, lost and bewildered in Tulgey Wood, desperately seeking direction amid nonsensical arrows and signposts. It is here that she first encounters the Cheshire Cat who, in his feeble attempt to provide guidance, leaves her even more confused than before. 

Entering the world of higher education can often feel like tumbling into Wonderland. Imagine a learner clicking through an institution’s website and struggling to figure out which path to take on their academic journey. They may stumble across unfamiliar terms like non-degree credential, stackable certificate, or credit for prior learning. Moreover, they may have difficulty finding and deciphering exactly what their options are and how they fit together. Often, the challenge is not a lack of pathways to choose from, but a lack of clear pathways to completion, further education, and/or employment. The task for higher education institutions is as simple as it is critical: Make academic pathways transparent from the first click. 

Not only is it important for the learner to have easy access to this information, but schools also reap the benefits of accessibility. EducationDynamic’s annual Online College Student Report, released in February 2024, reveals that accessibility to relevant information on a college’s website is a contributing factor for enrollment decisions. When considering enrollment in online programs, respondents weighed various factors, with a significant portion relating to pathways:  the availability of online programs (38%), program offerings that match their career goals (33%), and the length of time to complete their studies (32%). Notably, 23% of respondents said that ease of access to information on the institution’s website was important to them.  

Additionally, UPCEA and StraighterLine’s October 2023 report Disengaged Learners & Return Paths to Higher Education tells us that learners desire added layers of value in an educational program. Interest in enrolling in an undergraduate degree is heavily influenced by factors such as credit for prior learning (CPL), microcredentials, and stackability within degree completion programs. This data serves as compelling evidence of the impact of pathway transparency on program landing pages. 

Why Pathway Transparency Matters: 

Empowering Informed Decision-Making: Transparent pathways empower learners to make informed decisions about their academic journey. Clear information on program landing pages about course sequences and credit requirements help learners visualize the path they need to take, reducing the risk of wrong turns. Beyond that basic information, learners also want to know what other factors may shape their journey to completion. UPCEA and StraighterLine’s research reveals that stackable microcredentials have a profound effect on the decision to enroll in a degree program. Over three-quarters (76%) of respondents in that study said microcredentials that stack toward larger credentials would greatly increase (32%) or increase (44%) their interest in pursuing an undergraduate degree, further reinforcing why clear pathways matter. 

Reducing Anxiety and Stress: Navigating the maze of higher education can be stressful for learners. Transparent pathways alleviate anxiety by providing a clear roadmap, allowing learners to focus on their studies rather than getting lost in the woods. Without the need for extensive searching and deciphering, learners can allocate their time wisely, ensuring a smoother path from enrollment to program completion. 

Enhancing Retention and Reenrollment: Transparent information cultivates a sense of confidence and commitment among learners. When learners have a clear understanding of their academic journey, they are more likely to successfully complete their program. EducationDynamic’s report sheds light on a compelling statistic: Approximately 80% of respondents enrolled in certificate or license study programs expressed intentions to pursue further credentials or a degree in the same or related field of study. However, 31% of respondents were unsure whether their credential could be applied to future degree programs. This underscores the importance of institutions’ clearly communicating the stackable credentials they offer and how they integrate into other pathways at the institution. 

Connecting Pathways to Job Outcomes: The significance of transparency extends beyond academic pathways; it involves showing the link between education and career outcomes. Understanding that connection enables learners to tailor their studies to meet industry demands, acquire relevant skills, and ultimately boost their employability. The majority of respondents to EducationDynamics’s study had a career-focused motivation for pursuing their online education. Notably, 26% indicated that knowing a program aligned with their career goals would sway their enrollment decisions toward one school over another. As the job market evolves, learners increasingly value the workforce skills and specialized knowledge offered by microcredentials. A January 2024 report released by UPCEA and Collegis Education, The Effect of Employer Understanding and Engagement on Non-Degree Credentials, highlights heightened employer demand and the growing significance of microcredentials in today’s workforce.  This makes it more important than ever for learners to be informed about the educational pathways available to them, and how they align to their career goals. 

It is time for colleges and universities to take inspiration from Alice’s adventures and strive for transparency. By providing clear and well-marked pathways on program landing pages, institutions can empower learners to make informed choices, reduce stress, and undoubtedly influence their enrollment decisions.  

No Cheshire Cat required. 

By Andy Casiello

When I was just beginning my career in higher education, after a couple of relatively short stints rebuilding television systems at two community colleges in Massachusetts, I landed the job of chief television engineer for the College of Engineering at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. The operation I worked within was then called the “Office of Extended Engineering Education”, or “OE3” to the engineering faculty. OE3 used videotaped recordings, and later, satellite technology through National Technological University, to transmit live engineering classes from the Amherst campus, which were then duplicated and shipped to students at industrial locations around Western Massachusetts and beyond. 

OE3 was my introduction to Distance Education. While there was ARPANET, CSNET, and BITNET, there was no Internet in those days. “Online” referred to work with editing broadcast quality master tapes vs “offline”, where we were using duplicated copies at lower quality to create an “edit decision list” prior to final production. 

My career goal at that time was to get to New York City, and to work for NBC in the television engineering operation. I had taken a few trips to NYC while I was doing my undergraduate coursework to bow at the foot of 30 Rockefeller Plaza, the home of RCA and NBC. My steps to NBC were apparently going to go by way of UMass, while I built my credentials in managing television studio infrastructures and staffing. 

I never made it to NBC, and that’s okay. I still go by there any time I’m in the city. As it turned out, my career has been in higher education. I finally figured that out about 20 years ago and I went on to invest in my own graduate education, with a masters in Instructional Design and a PhD in Higher Education Administration.    

From my early position at UMass, I became involved with National Technological University (NTU), a satellite technology based distance education institution, conceived of by the dean of engineering at Colorado State University. UMass was a member school, which allowed me to get to know the great folks at NTU. They eventually hired me to come to Colorado as their Satellite Network Director, and later, Vice President for Technology.  

Old Dominion University (ODU) was one of the 57 larger engineering schools who were NTU member schools too. Over the years I built a strong relationship with the distance learning folks at ODU, and I watched as they built and expanded their educational network, then known as “Teletechnet”. After 10 years at NTU, I joined the ODU leadership team, and eventually took over their entire distance learning operation. At ODU, I led a group of 165 staff and reported to the university Provost.  During my time at ODU, I converted the program from “Teletechnet” to “ODUOnline”, and grew enrollment from about 1,500 purely distance students, to over 6,500 fully online students in 2023.  

At the time I was at UMass, during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, “Distance Education” played a much smaller role in higher education. It was a vital role though, especially in engineering and health sciences, and related fields where the need for continuing education is extremely critical. Those of us involved then were, and still are, passionate about the purpose and execution of distance education. We had to fight hard for attention among the many critical areas in need of resources within our institutions.  

Today that fight for resources continues, however the fight for attention has become much less of an issue. This is especially true within the offices of an institution’s leadership, the budget offices and in enrollment management circles.  

I first got involved with UPCEA during my time at UMass, when it was then known as UCEA. In recent years UPCEA has grown to be a powerhouse in online learning leadership. I have found it to be an incredible network of amazing professionals, who all learn and share from and with each other. I was honored to be asked to take part in the development of UPCEA’s Hallmarks of Excellence in Online Leadership, a work that we are all quite proud of. I really recommend anyone involved in this field to spend some time with the hallmarks, as they are quite a comprehensive look at what needs to be considered when managing online education moving forward.  

As leaders of online and continuing education at colleges and universities, we now often find ourselves at the “tip of the spear” with regard to enrollment stability and growth, which often, therefore, equates to institutional fiscal health and growth. 

I recently had the opportunity to take part in an UPCEA evaluation of the organizational structure and performance of the online education divisions within a moderate-sized university in the mid-west region of the United States. What we learned from the leadership and staff at that institution was something that we’ve heard repeatedly in recent years: enrollment in online programs at their institution is critical to the current strategy and the very fiscal health of their university. 

UPCEA and many other organizations involved in higher education have been predicting and reporting on the demographic cliff that we are now facing head-on. UPCEA participants are probably very used to sharing concerns over the enrollment cliff, as well as other relevant factors such as increasing competition in online education, and the increasing costs related to the marketing and advertising of online programs. The factors of the reduction of individuals of traditionally aged prospective students, increasing competition of institutions reaching farther and farther from their own backyards, and the overall arms race in costly marketing and promotion of online programs are now converging to the point where many institutions are really feeling the pain. 

Why call it an “arms race”? To receive the best placement of our products within high-return marketing placement for pay-per-click ads, and search engine optimization (SEO), we compete against each other to receive top placement by Google and other platforms regarding search terms such as “management of business administration online” or “electrical engineering education”. We work hard, and pay dearly, to keep our institutions top of mind within our own regions, while we look to geofencing our marketing power into other regions with “look alike” populations with potentially high interest in our academic programs. 

Many of us with enrollment increases in online education have worked to create tuition revenue share arrangements within our institutions to increase the annual funding allotted to us, to feed this hungry area of marketing and advertising media purchases. We simultaneously grow our talented marketing teams and with it, program quality, while we refine our work in “improving the yield” with the enrollment performance of those programs. 

Ever increasingly, institutions have turned to online education as a savior as the demographic cliff and increased competition have eaten away at their campus enrollments. Where we used to look to “non-traditional” students who needed the flexibility of distance programs and courses, we’re now in an era of declined populations of traditionally aged students who are now also often demanding that same flexibility. 

A significant problem to late-comer institutions to online education is that they are reaching out at a time where enrollment declines in on-campus programs have negatively affected their ability to fund the growth of online programs on their campuses. 

In an UPCEA Industry Spotlight article, dated February 28, 2024, Kevin Phang, VP, Partnership Development, Marketing & Enrollment for Noodle, cited a X post from mathematics professor Robert Talbert, who argued that higher education needed to treat innovations the same way that businesses do, by continuing to develop and evaluate them, talking with users during the process. In his article, Phang noted that “you can’t wait for problems to arise before addressing them”. So true. It seems that there are quite a few institutions that should have been aware of the present issues within plenty of time to begin addressing them some years ago. In my experience, the very well-meaning institutions that I have been involved with, among many others, don’t put enough effort into forecasting past the current fiscal year, never mind the decade ahead that would be needed to prepare sufficiently for such dramatic changes in our environments. 

Among the various institutional leaders at colleges and universities, the institutions Chief Online Learning Officers (COLO) must, among many other talents and areas of responsibility, be among the few that take time to forecast into the future to assist the institution in navigating the choppy waters of enrollment stability and growth, quality of education, competition, and collaboration in higher education. This individual needs a seat at the table within the president’s cabinet and within the provost’s council, in communicating not only today’s realities, but what tomorrow will bring, and how to steer the institution through the unknown. Online education development needs financial resources, talented staffing, and smart partnerships. We cannot solve enrollment problems on campus without these resources. Institutional leadership must be made aware of the criticality of making real investments into the future of online education, and the need to do it now. 

In my mind, and to many of my colleagues, UPCEA represents an oasis in these times, where like minds and individuals undergoing similar situations and challenges can share with each other, learn from each other, and improve the overall health and wellbeing of our beloved institutions of higher education. Our members can help each other reinforce the reality that simply because you gave your faculty members a webcam, and made arrangements to secure Zoom accounts, you did not convert your programs to “totally online”. I shuddered one time when during the peak of the COVID pandemic, a respected colleague informed me proudly that they had moved their programs to “fully online” over a two-week period, as if that was the last consideration they had to give to that particular issue. 

As a member of UPCEA, we know that institutions really need us to be the voice of the future of education. None of us believe that classrooms will go away, and we don’t want that to happen. But technology isn’t going away, either. That’s a good thing as well. Those of us who take control of our opportunities to use these technologies to expand the excellent work of our faculty and institutions are guiding those institutions to a healthier, more productive, and more effective future. 

To be an effective chief online learning officer takes a lot of talents. You must know what is happening in the building next to yours and in operations around the world. You must be aware of global, financial, and technological change and advancement issues. You must understand what it takes to create the highest quality educational products, how to support students around the world, how to tell the stories of your institution and its great faculty and programs.  You must know what has happened before in higher education and what is coming next. You must understand the needs of faculty and students, as well as your partners in industry and the needs of the institution itself. You must fight for your institutions, internally and externally, and demand the most from yourself and your organization. You must lead from a position of knowledge, driven by data, communications, and relationships built on trust. 

These can be daunting demands, but with the help of organizations like UPCEA, you do not have to do it alone.  If you involve yourselves, you will not find your institution lagging woefully behind where others are leading or find yourself unaware that it takes more than a big webcam order to truly convert an institution to fully online. 

Again, I am grateful to our colleagues within UPCEA and our member schools who bring ideas, reports, results, and occasionally laughter and levity to our otherwise quite serious responsibilities to our students and to the world around us. UPCEA helps us to remember that we cannot wait for problems to arise before we begin to address them.