The numbers paint a clear picture of change in demand for higher education. Still unclear is if colleges will adapt from static schools to dynamic institutions in time to survive and thrive.

Businesses are accustomed to changes in the marketplace. The demographics of customers and clients change through time. Products and services are constantly under scrutiny to ensure that they are finely tuned to the needs and desires of the marketplace. Efficiency, effectiveness and cost savings are encouraged and rewarded among employees and managers. Innovation tapping the newest technologies and techniques are integral to the research and development process. Surveys and focus groups are employed constantly to assess products and services matched to the customer. 

Higher education on the other hand over the past decades has become too comfortable in serving an unchanging market with a largely unchanging product, year after year; decade after decade. Other than gross number analysis, many colleges previously did not take a deep dive into demographics of students every semester to detect and adapt to subtle changes in other than the broadest terms. This is especially the case for comparison to competitors that are not degree-granting, such as code academies, Google, Amazon, LinkedIn and others. Curriculum and degree/certificate offerings had not been reviewed every semester to determine how directly they serve the dual customer base of employers and students. Reviews were not always coupled with a serious solicitation of recommendations from the dual audiences.

Equally important to the practices above is how quickly and effectively changes are implemented based on the findings. Stasis in this time means decline. An environment of static stability too often is the norm rather than dynamic responsiveness and growth. By the time some changes make it through the process of changing curricula, colleges, and departments, the market has further changed. 

The enrollment decline since the start of the pandemic is one of the most dramatic in history. The latest preliminary results from the National Student Clearninghouse Research Center show that the number of undergraduate students will likely drop 3.2 percent in the current academic year. All of this, after losing 3.4 percent last year. Overall, accounting for 6.6 percent less undergraduates than prior to the Covid pandemic, online institutions saw a similar dip of 5.5 percent. However, those online institutions are faring better, after seeing an increase of 8.6 percent enrollment in the fall 2020 semester. With the recent dip in enrollment, it is clear young adults increasingly are choosing work over college.

As a result, we see startling data on student enrollments. For example, fewer than half of all high schoolers want to go to a four-year college. CNBC reports, “A recent survey of high school students found that the likelihood of attending a four-year school sank more than 20% in the last year and a half — down to 48%, from 71%, according to ECMC Group, a nonprofit aimed at helping students find success.” The number of African American students declined at an accelerating rate. There is no guarantee that these trends will improve when the Covid pandemic finally subsides. 

The gender balance of the college student population has shifted dramatically over the decades from a twelve-percentage point lead in the number of male students to now a nearly twenty-percentage point lead by female students with only 41% of undergraduate students self-identified as males. 

Not only are the numbers of male students enrolled on the decline, but the numbers of male dropouts exceed those of female students. As Derek Thompson writes in the Atlantic, there are serious and pervasive societal impacts that await us if we are unable to stabilize the gender tilt in learning. The double-digit advantage in numbers of males completing college was harmful in years gone by, adding fuel to the disparity in wages as well as underrepresentation of women in leadership roles. The even larger gap – this time favoring female numbers – continues to grow with unknown consequences. 

The pendulum, swinging even further this time, may bring about changes that we are yet unable to predict in our society. Most assuredly, though, less education for any segment of our society whether it be gender, race, religion, ethnicity, geography, sexual orientation, or any other characteristic, is not a good thing.  An important aspect of higher education’s social compact is to strive to spread learning to everyone, everywhere. 

Even in this emerging age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, change is the constant as the ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus cautioned us some 2,500 years ago. He concluded that “nature is change. Like a river, nature flows ever onwards. Even the nature of the flow changes.”

Implicit in Heraclitus’ wisdom is that we must adapt to change. That is the key for colleges and universities today. This is not the society of half a century ago – the 1970’s – needs and desires have changed for the two groups we most directly serve: the students and the employers. Our field cannot be uniquely static in a world of change. We must take these changes into account and dynamically respond with new modules, courses, programs, certifications, degrees, all at more affordable price-points, if we have a hope of reclaiming the number of enrollments and the respect of employers that we once had. 

Is your institution collecting deep and clear data on not only the changes that have taken place, but what has motivated those changes? My readings are that there is a shift from a primary need to serve a traditional on-campus freshman cohort to serve the learning needs of upskilling, reskilling, and leadership competencies that we see growing in our society. Given that base, is your institution implementing responsive changes that promise to turn around the old models in time to advance your standing? If these are not happening, or not happening quickly enough, you may be well served to begin looking at other places of employment, or careers, that can best use your abilities to help move from the static to the dynamic, thereby advancing the institution.

This article was originally published on Inside Higher Ed’s Transforming Teaching & Learning blog. 

The numbers are startling. In the wake of deadly Covid infections, quarantines, and isolation, nearly three percent of the entire U.S. workforce resigned in the month of August alone. What is higher ed’s role re-shaping careers and lives?

Hidden behind the hundreds of thousands of deaths in the U.S., the failure of thousands of businesses, the pervasive distancing and shut-in lifestyle, has come a tidal wave of resignations of workers from coast to coast. As Anthony Klotz, organizational psychologist at Texas A&M University, who coined the term “The Great Resignation“ observes, “During the pandemic, because there was a lot of death and illness and lockdowns, we really had the time and the motivation to sit back and say, do I like the trajectory of my life? Am I pursuing a life that brings me well-being?”

As safe practices and vaccinations begin to take hold of this evil plague, bringing down the surge in Covid-19 deaths, one might have expected to see American workers welcome the return to the workplace and a familiar circle of friends and culture. On the contrary, as Derek Thompson writes in the Atlantic: “Look at what we have instead: a great pushing-outward. Migration to the suburbs accelerated. More people are quitting their job to start something new. Before the pandemic, the office served for many as the last physical community left, especially as church attendance and association membership declined. But now even our office relationships are being dispersed. The Great Resignation is speeding up, and it’s created a centrifugal moment in American economic history.” 

It has become apparent that for a growing number of Americans there is no return to the way it was prior to 2019. Gigantic office buildings, work cubicles, water cooler conversations, rigid work hours, massive rush hours, and lockstep career paths are falling away. What are the resigning workers looking for? Of course there is not one answer. However, the mental health strain of the Covid plague and the myriad of ripples across our society has taken a life-changing toll on millions of people. Taylor Telford and Aaron Gregg report in the Washington Post:  

Workers are quitting at or near record levels in nearly every sector tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, going back to 2001. But the pains are most acute among low-wage workers, who economists say are revolting against years of poor pay and stressful conditions. Many are now less willing to endure inconvenient hours and low compensation and are quitting at this stage in the pandemic to find better opportunities elsewhere. Nearly 40 percent of workers who quit in August worked in restaurants and hotels. Quits also are soaring among manufacturing and warehouse workers, who are straining under the pressures of surging demand and crunched supply chains.

McKinsey conducted a survey across industries and found that while those in the restaurant and hotel industries were quitting in high numbers, it was not at all restricted to those fields or only in the U.S.:

Executives who think that employee attrition is easing—or is limited to particular industries—are misguided. Forty percent of the employees in our survey said they are at least somewhat likely to quit in the next three to six months. Eighteen percent of the respondents said their intentions range from likely to almost certain. These findings held across all five countries we surveyed (Australia, Canada, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and were broadly consistent across industries (Exhibit 1). Businesses in the leisure and hospitality industry are the most at risk for losing employees, but many healthcare and white-collar workers say they also plan to quit. Even among educators—the employees least likely to say they may quit—almost one-third reported that they are at least somewhat likely to do so. 

Among the millions of people who have quit their jobs in recent months and those who are expected to continue this trend through the end of year, how can higher education help them reskill, upskill or change career paths to better meet their needs? We have a few clues as to what they desire. As expected, more income seems to be among the factors they are seeking.  

Evergreen Dimes has conducted a study using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, O*NET and PayScale to compile a list of “40 High-Paying Careers in Demand for The Next 10 Years.” 

These may be a good place to start in designing online short-courses, stackable certificates and programs that can lead to a relevant degree. Of course, the programs should offer the kind of flexibility that these prospective students desire. They should feature universal design principles that serve all students. Remember that many of these adults have resigned their jobs in part to escape the rigidity and lack of prospects for advancement at their former places of employment.

However, it is not all about money and flexibility. Over the past two years, we have seen again and again that an empathetic and supportive working culture is valued highly by employees. The pandemic has advanced the importance of wellbeing, inclusiveness, innovation and entrepreneurship. We should be sure to model these practices in the delivery of all programs.

Of course, the programs should be online, affordable, accessible, relevant and robustly supported by academics, advisers, and technical staff.  

Who on your campus is tracking the demographics and needs of those engaged in the “Great Resignation?” Are administrators and faculty aware of the emergence of this growing segment of the workforce? Is your institution agile enough to design new programs to meet the needs of these millions of workers who have called it quits in their current jobs?

This article was originally published in Inside Higher Ed’s Transforming Teaching & Learning blog.