Predictions are one individual’s hunch based on the information at hand. Rarely do long-term predictions come true in just one year. Many of my 2018 predictions continue to head in the anticipated direction, some faster than others. However, what is clear is that, as happened to the music industry ten years ago, transportation (Uber, Lyft, Turo, etc.), lodging (Airbnb, VRBO, HomeAway, etc.), and more recently, higher and continuing education, is experiencing significant change.

• 2018 Prediction #1: Millennials will find their voice and increase their influence. I predicted that Millennials would find their voice and they are growing in power and with influence. They played a major role in the mid-term elections, were the driving generation of the #metoo movement, and were inspired by the Parkland movement. Millennials were criticized for their inactivity in the last presidential election, as well as the midterm in 2014. Millennials are coming of age and are quickly becoming the managers and leaders in the workforce.
• 2018 Prediction #2: Alternative credentials will rise as a result of Millennial influence. This prediction should continue rising over the next few years. While there is very little direct data on the full spectrum of alternative credentials in either 2017 or 2018, NCES reports that credit certificates continue to rise with at least eight consecutive years of growth, with the last reporting year being 2015-2016. Class Central also reported that 101 million users enrolled in a MOOC. While this number declined from the past year, the number of paid users increased as well as gross revenues to MOOC providers.
• 2018 Prediction #3:  Business and higher education will become better partners. Change continues to happen regarding employers and higher education. The balance of power appears to be shifting more toward employers as the economy shifts with higher education showing signs of weakness. The National Student Clearinghouse in its latest report (Spring 2018) showed that higher education enrollments declining by 1.3% from spring 2017. Also, since 2016, more than a hundred colleges and universities have closed. My next blog will show industries with anticipated growth for 2019 and 2020.
• 2018 Prediction #4: Business and industry will push for more STEM degrees and graduates, but with that comes opportunity in other disciplines. While IPEDs and NCES data is not out for 2018, Campus Technology and the National Student Clearinghouse shows enrollments in computer and information science degrees, as well as science technologies, have grown significantly from fall 2016 to 2017. Coding bootcamp providers are also reporting growth in their noncredit intensive programs.
• 2018 Prediction #5: Focus on enrollment, retention and inquiry management as marketers figure out major technology and traditional marketing shifts. The focus on enrollment management is a long-term strategy, one that we believe continues its importance. There is very little longitudinal data on whether PCO marketers and enrollment managers are shifting their attention and resources to support CRM, dashboard, conversion, and other enrollment management tactics, but we feel that units still value these principles more and that they are needed to show ROI and demonstrate budget transparency.
• 2018 Prediction #6: Content will become closer to the customer through technology. Content and knowledge was predicted to be more easily accessible and not necessarily residing in the mind and experiences of a professor. This long-term trend will require skilled professionals such as an instructional designer, multimedia specialist, content developer, or training professional to help connect more readily-available or instant content or experiences to pedagogy. In fact, colleges and universities, as well as K-12 educators and corporate trainers will continue to seek these professionals. These professionals are forecasted to see a growth rate of 13% between 2018 and 2028, which translates into 73,762 new well-paying jobs (see Table 1).  

• 2018 Prediction #7: Competition will force higher education to explore previously ignored, underleveraged or untapped markets. 2018 was just one year in this prediction, which we feel will span multiple years. However, many corporations announced in 2018 that some of their jobs may not necessarily require a degree and that other factors would be considered. This statement alone should have higher education providers rethinking their strategy to potentially unbundle existing education products or create new certificates that might better prepare a candidate for one of these jobs. Some higher education institutions also announced new “lifelong” engagement strategies aimed at better serving alumni and other stakeholders, including local or regional employers or K-12 audiences.

From a prediction standpoint, 2019 won’t be that different from 2018, except that Millennials and Generation Z are slowly, but consistently finding their voice and becoming power players in the new economy. They should continue to accelerate some of the predictions. In the past year, the world saw major advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics; autonomous and electric vehicles; unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), such as drones; financial technology (we use less physical money and more digital money!); health technology and other industries. In 2018, we also saw the introduction of many new tax changes, announcement of new facilities by Amazon and Google, increases and new technologies related to gaming and virtual reality, the legalization of cannabis in some areas, and greater global adoption of green energy sources, all of which should have implications for higher education and professional and continuing education.

Higher education marketers are faced with significant challenges in attracting new adult students into their professional, continuing, and online (PCO) programs. The target market is now primarily spread across four generations of adult learners, recent Generation Z graduates (those 22 or younger) and Gen Zers not going to college, Millennials (those 23 to 37 years of age) who are becoming managers and parents, Generation X (those 38 to 53) who are new organizational and societal leaders, and Baby Boomers who are slowly looking for the employment exit to spend more time with the multigenerational grandchildren.

PCO marketers are also faced with a shifting portfolio of programs. They market online degrees, noncredit certificates, pre-college programs, programs for those in retirement, technology bootcamps, and Massive Online Open Courses (MOOCs), among other credentials. In addition to the diverse credentials and programs, content is also changing as the economy shifts with artificial intelligence, digital currency, healthcare technology, evolving transportation, transportation science, and new retailing.

A recent UPCEA survey of 90 marketing departments show that PCO units spend on average just over a million dollars ($1.1M) on 7.8 marketing staff and advertising and media expenditures. Of this amount, just over a half ($560K) is spent on media or advertising. The $1.1M spent on marketing contributes to generating $18.6M for the PCO unit and institution. With marketing being such a strategic piece of the revenue and success puzzle, why are we failing or not optimizing the conversion of the expensive inquirer?

Another recent UPCEA study showed that six-in-ten Millennials will give a correct email during an inquiry and half provide a true name. Half provide an accurate telephone number while the majority provide a false physical address if it is required, but not perceived as essential. After contact information is provided, most will tolerate another question or two. 

However, a review of twenty PCO websites and forms shows that many ask for too much and may risk losing the relationship. On average, a PCO institution will ask the inquirer to complete a dozen questions, on their digital form. Units also make many of these questions and fields required.  Instead of building the relationship through multiple points of contacts, PCO units try and force the young Millennial or older Gen Z’er to complete the form to get the information they ultimately desire. 

As a result, the likelihood of leads providing false information or abandoning the form is almost certain to increase. PCO units have also forced new adults to answer more questions than they prefer, as well as ask what they may perceive as irrelevant questions. Lastly, almost half (9 out of 20) the PCO forms we reviewed provide no opportunity for inquirers to ask a freeform question nor do they provide a real-time assistant or live chat function. So, why have many PCO units failed here?

• They are working with legacy systems and processes designed around the Boomer or Generation X adult learner.
• They have refused to challenge the defaults of third-party systems or that of the central IT unit of the higher education institution to redesign the form around the Gen Z’er or young Millennial. Some state that “We can’t change the variables. It’s part of XYZ and the system doesn’t allow it.”
• Some marketers, enrollment managers or IT staff are under-resourced and try to squeeze too much information from one engagement. In doing so, they are losing out on many potentially qualified leads, filtering them out unnecessarily.
• Some units lack a proper CRM or have not automated steps to break down information needs into multiple engagements, thus forcing the relationship into a single 12+ required question form.
• Some maintain a subtle arrogance that their higher education product is in high demand and if the potential learner wants it, it must be on the institution’s or unit’s terms.
• An occasional few use the process as a way to screen or qualify the lead. One institution interviewed stated that if the potential adult learner cannot provide the information to the unit, then they aren’t a good candidate for them. This is a very dangerous ideology for a PCO unit, as it is likely to use false or biased assumptions.

As PCO units move into a new year, investing significant budgets on generating leads, they need to challenge their processes for centricity around the new learner, as well as generate transparent conversion metrics to leaders and program managers to avoid simple, but costly mistakes.